Inflation has increased sharply over the past several months. Nationwide, consumer prices increased by 4.2 percent over the year ending in May 2026, due in large part to a spike in energy costs, though the increase also extends to shelter, transportation services, medical care services, and food. In the Northeast, inflation is even higher, with consumer prices increasing by 5.0 percent over the same period and rising more than the national average across most of those categories.

Background Information

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) tracks the price of a typical basket of goods and services that households buy, including food, rent, gas, medical care, and more. Each month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases CPI-U estimates. At the national level, the BLS provides both seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted data. Seasonally adjusted data remove typical seasonal influences, such as the usual rise in gas prices each summer, which makes it easier to see underlying trends in month-to-month price changes. For 12-month changes, seasonal effects cancel out, and the BLS therefore generally reports not seasonally adjusted data.

At the regional level, the BLS provides only not seasonally adjusted data, and it publishes no state-level estimates. The CPI-U for the Northeast—which includes Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont—is therefore the closest available measure of the inflation that Connecticut households are experiencing. To compare the U.S. and the Northeast on the same basis, the analysis here uses not seasonally adjusted data for both monthly and 12-month changes.

New National Data for May 2026

In the U.S., the CPI-U increased by 0.6 percent in May 2026, after increasing by 0.9 percent in April and 1.0 percent in March. Over the last 12 months, the CPI-U increased by 4.2 percent.

A normal inflation rate is 2 percent per year, the level the Federal Reserve targets using the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which is a closely related but different measure. Spread evenly over the year, a 2 percent annual rate corresponds to monthly increases of less than 0.2 percent. At about twice the target, the current annual rate of 4.2 percent is high, and the monthly increases over the past three months, ranging from 0.6 percent to 1.0 percent, are even higher at three to five times the monthly pace consistent with the annual target.

The sharp increase in the overall price index over the past several months is due in large part to a spike in energy costs, but it also includes substantial increases in transportation services, medical care services, shelter, and food.

The index for energy (accounting for 7.5 percent of the total CPI-U weight) increased by 4.9 percent in May, after increasing by 6.3 percent in April and 11.9 percent in March. Over the last 12 months, energy costs are up 23.5 percent.

The index for transportation services (accounting for 6.4 percent of the total CPI-U weight) increased by 0.3 percent in May, after increasing by 0.8 percent in April and 1.1 percent in March. Over the last 12 months, transportation services costs are up 4.1 percent.

The index for medical care services (accounting for 6.8 percent of the total CPI-U weight) increased by 0.5 percent in May, after decreasing by 0.1 percent in April and increasing by 0.1 percent in March. Over the last 12 months, medical care services costs are up 3.6 percent.

The index for shelter (accounting for 35.2 percent of the total CPI-U weight) increased by 0.4 percent in May, after increasing by 0.6 percent in April and 0.4 percent in March. Over the last 12 months, shelter costs are up 3.4 percent.

The index for food (accounting for 13.5 percent of the total CPI-U weight) increased by 0.2 percent in May, after increasing by 0.5 percent in April and 0.1 percent in March. Over the last 12 months, food costs are up 3.1 percent.

New Regional Data for May 2026

In the Northeast, the CPI-U increased by 0.8 percent in May 2026, after increasing by 1.0 percent in April and 0.9 percent in March. Over the last 12 months, the CPI-U increased by 5.0 percent in the Northeast compared to 4.2 percent nationwide.

As in the U.S. as a whole, the sharp increase in inflation in the Northeast over the past several months is due in large part to a spike in energy costs, but it also includes substantial increases in transportation services, shelter, food, and medical care services.

The index for energy increased by 26.2 percent over the past 12 months in the Northeast compared to 23.5 percent nationwide.

The index for transportation services increased by 5.5 percent over the past 12 months in the Northeast compared to 4.1 percent nationwide.

The index for shelter increased by 4.4 percent over the past 12 months in the Northeast compared to 3.4 percent nationwide.

The index for food increased by 3.8 percent over the past 12 months in the Northeast compared to 3.1 percent nationwide.

The index for medical care services increased by 3.1 percent over the past 12 months in the Northeast compared to 3.6 percent nationwide.

Why the Data Matter

This sharp rise in prices, only a few years after the post-pandemic spike, is especially concerning for low- and middle-income households because they tend to spend a larger share of their income on essentials and have smaller savings to rely on than high-income households. Several of the price increases for specific goods and services are even more concerning when taking into account three additional factors.

First, as our recent analysis of unemployment data shows, Connecticut’s unemployment rate rose faster than any other state’s over the past year and currently ranks among the highest in the nation at 5.1 percent, compared to 4.3 percent in the U.S. and 4.4 percent in the Northeast. A year ago, the state’s unemployment rate was 3.8 percent, well below the rate of 4.3 percent in both the U.S. and the Northeast.

Second, the combination of rising prices and rising unemployment comes at a time when the federal government has made major cuts to food assistance and health care, leaving low- and middle-income households with even less support to fall back on when they need it most. As our recent budget report shows, the estimated federal cuts to Connecticut total nearly $1 billion in FY 2027.

Third, even before the recent rise in prices, especially in the Northeast, energy and housing costs in Connecticut were already substantially higher than the nationwide average. In 2024, the latest year available, data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis show that utilities and housing cost about 46 percent and 17 percent more, respectively, in Connecticut than in the U.S. as a whole.

Figure 1. One-Month Percent Change in CPI-U

Figure 2. Twelve-Month Percent Change in CPI-U

Table 1. Percent Change in the CPI-U for U.S. by Category

Table 2. Percent Change in the CPI-U for Northeast by Category

-Patrick R. O’Brien, Ph.D., Research and Policy Director